Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jackson Merrill

San Diego Padres · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.94
Edge
-2.1%
Trending splitsDay 67%(27)
Last 20
70%14/20 over 0.5
Window avg
1.10
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
53%
23/43
Avg1.11
StreakW1

Parlay pairs — when Jackson Merrill clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Manny Machado o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 63% · n=224 · -180 DraftKings
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 61% · base 58% · n=201 · -162 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

away only · official box scores
3@ WSH05/310@ PHI06/021@ PHI06/031@ PHI06/040@ BAL06/121@ BAL06/132@ BAL06/140@ STL06/151@ STL06/163@ STL06/170@ TEX06/193@ TEX06/201@ TEX06/211@ CHC06/291@ CHC06/300@ CHC07/011@ LAD07/022@ LAD07/030@ LAD07/041@ LAD07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-206+153

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Manny Machado SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Rodolfo Durán SD07/060