Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jackson Merrill

San Diego Padres · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.94
Edge
-2.1%
All 114 games
68%77/114 over 0.5
Window avg
1.03
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
75%
15/20
2026
67%
18/27
Avg1.03
StreakL1

Parlay pairs — when Jackson Merrill clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Manny Machado o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 63% · n=224 · -180 DraftKings
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 61% · base 58% · n=201 · -162 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitsall 114 games vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ CHC09/300@ CHC10/012@ CHC10/020vs DET03/261vs SF04/010@ BOS04/033@ BOS04/050@ PIT04/082vs COL04/120@ LAA04/190@ COL04/232@ AZ04/260vs CHC04/291vs CWS05/031@ SF05/061vs STL05/100vs OAK05/242vs PHI05/270@ WSH05/303@ WSH05/311@ PHI06/041vs NYM06/072vs CIN06/101@ BAL06/132@ BAL06/143@ STL06/173@ TEX06/201@ TEX06/211vs LAD06/280@ CHC07/010.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-206+153

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Rodolfo Durán SD07/060