Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jackson Merrill

San Diego Padres · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.94
Edge
-2.1%
Trending splitsNight 48%(40)
Last 20
60%12/20 over 0.5
Window avg
1.00
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
59%
10/17
Avg1.00
StreakW2

Parlay pairs — when Jackson Merrill clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Manny Machado o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 63% · n=224 · -180 DraftKings
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 61% · base 58% · n=201 · -162 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
2@ NYM09/170vs AZ09/271@ CHC09/300vs DET03/262vs DET03/273@ BOS04/050@ LAA04/181vs CHC04/271vs CWS05/030vs STL05/070vs PHI05/252vs PHI05/270@ WSH05/301@ PHI06/030vs CIN06/082@ BAL06/143@ TEX06/200vs ATL06/241@ CHC06/291@ CHC06/300.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-206+153

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Manny Machado SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Rodolfo Durán SD07/060