Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Richie Palacios

Tampa Bay Rays · RF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.05
Edge
-1.9%
Last 168
5%8/168 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
3%
2/63
Avg0.05
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
44.0%
93.5.250.30017.3%
Slider
18.5%
87.2.286.57117.9%
Changeup
15.5%
83.7.346.46241.8%
Knuckle Curve
14.3%
81.2
Sinker
7.8%
90.6.172.2073.9%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 168 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ BAL05/250@ BAL05/260@ BAL05/270vs LAA05/290vs LAA05/310vs DET06/010vs DET06/020vs DET06/030@ MIA06/050@ MIA06/060@ MIA06/070vs BOS06/080vs BOS06/090@ LAA06/130@ LAA06/140@ LAD06/170vs WSH06/190vs WSH06/200vs KC06/220vs KC06/230vs KC06/250vs AZ06/260vs AZ06/270vs AZ06/280@ KC07/010@ KC07/021@ HOU07/040@ HOU07/050vs NYY07/060vs NYY07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1437-1429

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs NYY Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Hunter Feduccia TB07/071
Yandy Díaz TB07/071
Victor Mesa Jr. TB07/071
Junior Caminero TB07/070
Taylor Walls TB07/070
Chandler Simpson TB07/070
Jonathan Aranda TB07/070
Cedric Mullins TB07/070
Nick Fortes TB07/060
Cedric Mullins TB07/060
Taylor Walls TB07/060
Jonny DeLuca TB07/060
Chandler Simpson TB07/060
Yandy Díaz TB07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.375.211.182.200.438.294.300.308.000
Exit Velo
90.9089.4476.8686.3387.9482.1092.2776.3682.54
AVG
.375.211.182.200.438.294.300.250.000
sluggingPercentage
.625.368.182.200.875.353.300.250.000
OPS
1.000.579.364.4001.313.647.600.538.000