Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.35
Edge
+14.4%Last 10
25%2/8 over 1 · 2 push
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.0
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
2/8
L20
13%
2/15
2026
3%
2/77
Avg0.21
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Dylan Cease (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 36.1% | 97.7 | .221 | .504 | 39.5% |
| Slider | 29.1% | 89.3 | .209 | .419 | 35.9% |
| Changeup | 11.3% | 83.6 | .237 | .342 | 13.2% |
| Sinker | 9.8% | 96.3 | .304 | .478 | 13.2% |
| Knuckle Curve | 9.3% | 82.7 | — | — | — |
| Sweeper | 4.4% | 84.2 | .172 | .379 | 32.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Rafael Devers clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jung Hoo Lee o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 64% · n=28 · -182 dabble_us_dfs
Casey Schmitt o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 63% · n=31 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 10 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +569 | -556 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs TOR — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Victor Bericoto SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Arraez SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drew Cavanaugh SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Casey Schmitt SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Willy Adames SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Bericoto SF | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Arraez SF | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Casey Schmitt SF | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Eric Haase SF | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS