Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.60
Edge
-4.7%Last 20
55%11/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.65
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
2026
49%
42/85
Avg0.59
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .224 | .517 | 38.9% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .280 | .671 | 33.0% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .267 | .333 | 21.3% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .314 | .571 | 37.7% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .296 | .481 | 29.4% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .231 | .590 | 32.6% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Brandon Lowe clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 69% · n=45 · -214 DraftKings
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 65% · n=40 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 60% · n=30 · -119 dabble_us_dfs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 64% · base 52% · n=45 · +112 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Runs Scored — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Runs Scored
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| PrizePicks | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Underdog | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Betr Picks | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -102 | +103 |
Line movement — Runs Scored
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
UnderdogPrizePicksBetr Picksdabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Runs Scored, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Ronny Mauricio NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
Exit Velo