Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.01
Edge
-1.1%Last 30
4%1/25 over 2 · 5 push
Window avg
0.93
Median
1.0
L5
25%
1/4
L10
11%
1/9
L20
6%
1/16
2026
6%
4/67
Avg0.94
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .224 | .517 | 38.9% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .280 | .671 | 33.0% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .267 | .333 | 21.3% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .314 | .571 | 37.7% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .296 | .481 | 29.4% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .231 | .590 | 32.6% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Brandon Lowe clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=59 · -214 DraftKings
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 65% · n=53 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 30 vs 2
official box scoresLine movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronny Mauricio NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
Exit Velo