Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jackson Chourio

Milwaukee Brewers · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.19
Edge
+4.9%
Trending splitsDay 12%(17)
Last 20
35%7/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.45
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
21%
8/38
Avg0.19
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
25.7%
91.6.270.47625.6%
Changeup
21.0%
86.7.364.54513.7%
Sinker
16.5%
90.4.367.61210.6%
Cutter
11.3%
86.8.182.45534.5%
Curveball
11.2%
77.9.333.60025.0%
Sweeper
10.2%
81.4.156.46926.3%
Slider
4.1%
83.4.323.38724.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs SF06/032vs SF06/040@ COL06/050@ COL06/061@ OAK06/091@ OAK06/102vs PHI06/130vs CLE06/161vs CLE06/170@ ATL06/210@ CIN06/220@ CIN06/240vs CHC06/261vs CIN06/300vs CIN07/020@ AZ07/031@ AZ07/040@ STL07/060@ STL07/070@ STL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+734-714

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs STL Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Joey Ortiz MIL07/071
Andrew Vaughn MIL07/070
Gary Sánchez MIL07/070
Sal Frelick MIL07/070
Christian Yelich MIL07/070
Brice Turang MIL07/070
Joey Ortiz MIL07/070
Cooper Pratt MIL07/070
Christian Yelich MIL07/070
Sal Frelick MIL07/070
Brice Turang MIL07/070
William Contreras MIL07/070
Luis Lara MIL07/070
Jake Bauers MIL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.071.286.077.391.611.292.385.259.083
sluggingPercentage
.071.857.077.9131.000.292.692.423.083
AVG
.071.286.077.391.611.292.385.269.083
OPS
.1431.143.1541.3041.611.5831.077.667.167
Exit Velo
91.94102.2888.0696.9798.8585.1492.8693.3084.30