Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.06
Edge
-8.0%Last 5
0%0/5 over 2
Window avg
0.00
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/84
Avg0.14
StreakL71
Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 32.7% | 90.4 | .262 | .286 | 27.8% |
| Sinker | 31.6% | 97.5 | .313 | .375 | 15.2% |
| Four-seam FB | 19.9% | 97.4 | .265 | .441 | 20.4% |
| Sweeper | 15.8% | 86.2 | .200 | .533 | 33.3% |
| Fastball | 0.1% | 84.7 | — | — | — |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Brandon Nimmo clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Ezequiel Duran o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 64% · n=8 · -145 dabble_us_dfs
Ezequiel Duran o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 63% · base 39% · n=8 · +157 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 5 vs 2
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +641 | -625 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs LAA — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Alejandro Osuna TEX | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Smith TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Burger TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Evan Carter TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Elias Díaz TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joc Pederson TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Willson Contreras BOS | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilyer Abreu BOS | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Masataka Yoshida BOS | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Narváez BOS | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
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