Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ezequiel Tovar

Colorado Rockies · SS · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.15
Edge
+3.7%
Last 30
3%1/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.03
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
4%
1/25
Avg0.08
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Roki Sasaki (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
43.2%
97.5.144.24728.8%
Splitter
24.3%
90.2.000.00038.9%
Slider
21.9%
86.6.298.48933.1%
Forkball
10.6%
85.2

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Ezequiel Tovar clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Kyle Karros o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 55% · n=9 · -120 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 30 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs SF09/030@ LAD09/100@ SD09/120vs MIA09/170vs LAA09/190vs PHI04/040@ HOU04/140vs LAD04/200@ CIN04/290@ CIN04/300vs ATL05/020@ PHI05/080@ PHI05/100@ PIT05/140vs AZ05/160vs TEX05/180vs TEX05/190@ AZ05/210@ LAD05/260vs SF05/310vs MIL06/070vs CHC06/100@ OAK06/140@ CHC06/150vs BOS06/220vs BOS06/240@ MIN06/280vs SF07/041@ LAD07/060@ LAD07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+909-833

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs LAD Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 0/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

TJ Rumfield COL07/070
Jake McCarthy COL07/070
Mickey Moniak COL07/070
Cole Carrigg COL07/070
Tyler Freeman COL07/070
Kyle Karros COL07/070
Willi Castro COL07/070
Braxton Fulford COL07/070
Cole Carrigg COL07/060
Jake McCarthy COL07/060
Troy Johnston COL07/060
Hunter Goodman COL07/060
Tyler Freeman COL07/060
Kyle Karros COL07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.000.211.176.000.360.333.429.435.290
OPS
.077.632.368.0001.038.8181.0711.261.706
Exit Velo
82.3486.1174.8276.7195.3691.4891.1792.8186.92
sluggingPercentage
.000.421.176.000.720.485.643.826.452
onBasePercentage
.077.211.211.000.346.333.429.435.294