Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Elias Díaz

Texas Rangers · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.14
Edge
+5.3%
Last 20
20%4/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
18%
2/11
Avg0.12
StreakL2

Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Changeup
32.7%
90.4.188.43823.1%
Sinker
31.6%
97.5.167.41715.6%
Four-seam FB
19.9%
97.4.267.40028.0%
Sweeper
15.8%
86.2
Fastball
0.1%
84.7

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ PHI07/020vs PHI07/131@ WSH07/200@ MIA07/230@ STL07/270@ SF08/131vs LAD08/240vs BAL09/030@ CWS09/210@ NYY04/191@ OAK04/300vs CLE06/070@ KC06/110@ BOS06/130@ MIA06/240@ TOR06/270@ TOR06/281@ CLE07/010vs DET07/040vs DET07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1143-1111

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs LAA Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Alejandro Osuna TEX07/071
Ezequiel Duran TEX07/070
Nicky Lopez TEX07/070
Evan Carter TEX07/070
Josh Smith TEX07/070
Brandon Nimmo TEX07/070
Jake Burger TEX07/070
Joc Pederson TEX07/070
Jarren Duran BOS07/051
Willson Contreras BOS07/051
Masataka Yoshida BOS07/050
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/050
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/050
Caleb Durbin BOS07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.333.0002.000.333.636.7692.000.111.625
Exit Velo
59.55-94.7882.1089.0991.4495.5495.7892.68
AVG
.333.000.500.333.273.462.500.111.500
onBasePercentage
.333.000.500.333.273.429.500.111.500
OPS
.667.0002.500.667.9091.1432.500.2221.125