Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ty France

San Diego Padres · 1B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.85
Edge
-3.1%
Last 5
40%2/5 over 0.5
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
43%
9/21
Avg0.69
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.083.33336.4%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.208.39635.3%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.231.38522.6%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.375.50031.0%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.440.68034.9%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.214.40514.9%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 5 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ STL06/170@ TEX06/201@ TEX06/210vs LAD06/282@ CHC07/010.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-180+135

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.100.091.273.333.333.059.500.520.267
Exit Velo
76.2685.5890.5985.9998.1791.85100.3495.6195.65
AVG
.100.091.273.333.333.059.500.520.286
sluggingPercentage
.300.227.636.333.708.059.900.960.571
OPS
.400.318.909.6671.042.1181.4001.480.800