Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ty France

San Diego Padres · 1B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.85
Edge
-3.1%
Last 20
60%12/20 over 0.5
Window avg
1.05
Median
1.0
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
64%
7/11
Avg0.85
StreakW6

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.083.33336.4%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.208.39635.3%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.231.38522.6%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.375.50031.0%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.440.68034.9%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.214.40514.9%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs CHC07/081@ COL07/180vs WSH07/253vs WSH07/262@ LAD08/081@ LAD08/090vs BAL09/120@ TB09/171@ KC09/200vs DET03/270@ LAA04/182vs CHC04/270vs CWS05/010vs STL05/072vs PHI05/252@ PHI06/031vs CIN06/082vs ATL06/242@ CHC06/292@ CHC06/300.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-180+135
dabble_us_dfs0.5-167+169

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Manny Machado SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.100.091.273.333.333.059.500.520.267
Exit Velo
76.2685.5890.5985.9998.1791.85100.3495.6195.65
AVG
.100.091.273.333.333.059.500.520.286
sluggingPercentage
.300.227.636.333.708.059.900.960.571
OPS
.400.318.909.6671.042.1181.4001.480.800