Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Isaac Paredes

Houston Astros · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.18
Edge
+2.4%
Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
14%
8/57
Avg0.17
StreakL14

Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
32.1%
88.1.409.72712.5%
Four-seam FB
17.1%
91.5.217.41312.3%
Sweeper
14.5%
79.8.222.38927.8%
Curveball
10.5%
77.8.100.20025.0%
Changeup
10.4%
82.4.273.42424.4%
Sinker
10.3%
91.2.379.5767.1%
Splitter
5.1%
81.2.200.20026.3%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ LAA06/080@ LAA06/090@ LAA06/100@ KC06/120@ KC06/131vs DET06/150vs DET06/160vs CLE06/190vs CLE06/200@ TOR06/220@ TOR06/240@ DET06/250@ DET06/260vs MIN06/290vs MIN06/300vs MIN07/010vs TB07/030vs TB07/040@ WSH07/060@ WSH07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+609-588

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs WSH Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Jose Altuve HOU07/071
Zach Dezenzo HOU07/070
Brice Matthews HOU07/070
Christian Walker HOU07/070
Nick Allen HOU07/070
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/070
Christian Vázquez HOU07/070
Cam Smith HOU07/070
Yainer Diaz HOU07/061
Jose Altuve HOU07/061
Brice Matthews HOU07/061
Cam Smith HOU07/060
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/060
Christian Walker HOU07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.143.296.240.231.323.300.300.190.342
Exit Velo
78.3491.2490.6081.6792.5790.6685.6385.4387.90
AVG
.143.296.250.231.323.300.300.200.342
sluggingPercentage
.429.667.292.308.710.475.700.350.526
OPS
.571.963.520.5381.032.7751.000.524.868