Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

J.P. Crawford

Seattle Mariners · SS · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.44
Edge
-9.7%
Last 20
30%6/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
30%
6/20
2026
39%
29/74
Avg0.47
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
25.2%
95.8.296.3706.2%
Sweeper
24.1%
84.2.267.33320.8%
Splitter
24.0%
87.4.143.28612.5%
Curveball
16.5%
83.6.190.47625.0%
Four-seam FB
9.1%
96.3.228.40518.5%
Slider
1.1%
88.7.139.22228.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when J.P. Crawford clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Josh Naylor o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 74% · n=53 · -233 dabble_us_dfs
Victor Robles o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 58% · n=46 · -152 dabble_us_dfs
Cole Young o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 56% · n=54 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 60% · n=131 · -169 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ DET06/050vs BAL06/160vs BAL06/170vs BAL06/180vs BOS06/191vs BOS06/200vs BOS06/210@ PIT06/231@ PIT06/240@ PIT06/250@ CLE06/260@ CLE06/270@ CLE06/280vs LAA06/290vs LAA06/301vs LAA07/020vs TOR07/031vs TOR07/040vs TOR07/051@ MIA07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+120-120

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs MIA Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Randy Arozarena SEA07/071
Cal Raleigh SEA07/071
Josh Naylor SEA07/071
Cole Young SEA07/071
Colt Emerson SEA07/070
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Luke Raley SEA07/070
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Max Muncy OAK07/052
Lawrence Butler OAK07/052
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051
Jonah Heim OAK07/051
Carlos Cortes OAK07/051
Zack Gelof OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.136.300.250.207.237.235.310.200.250
AVG
.136.300.200.207.237.235.286.200.250
Exit Velo
94.3690.8478.9995.9792.8582.2393.0891.5481.40
sluggingPercentage
.318.900.200.310.395.235.679.200.400
OPS
.4551.200.438.517.632.471.966.400.650