Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.26
Edge
-4.5%All 400 games
59%158/270 over 1 · 130 push
Window avg
1.48
Median
1.0
L5
50%
1/2
L10
60%
3/5
L20
50%
7/14
2026
53%
30/57
Avg1.48
Streak—
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .200 | .200 | 46.2% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .189 | .288 | 5.8% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .259 | .341 | 2.9% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .190 | .286 | 14.3% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .348 | .435 | 15.2% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .260 | .360 | 19.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Nico Hoerner clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 67% · n=131 · -183 DraftKings
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 61% · n=155 · -147 DraftKings
Carson Kelly o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 57% · n=70 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 400 games vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +146 | -196 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +145 | -190 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +141 | -139 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +146 | -192 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs BAL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| TJ Friedl CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
onBasePercentage
OPS