Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.29
Edge
+11.7%Last 15
13%2/15 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
22%
5/23
Avg0.16
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .000 | .000 | 16.7% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .282 | .565 | 24.2% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .255 | .471 | 21.6% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .091 | .091 | 37.2% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .333 | .667 | 38.9% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .091 | .205 | 36.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Dansby Swanson clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 61% · n=48 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Carson Kelly o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 57% · n=23 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 72% · n=50 · -230 DraftKings
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 61% · n=48 · -222 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 15 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +635 | -625 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BAL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| TJ Friedl CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Bleday CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS