Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.16
Edge
-1.0%Trending splitsvs LHP 32%(19)
Last 10
30%3/10 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
17%
13/75
Avg0.19
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .500 | .500 | 33.3% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .282 | .521 | 21.8% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .323 | .500 | 14.8% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .217 | .261 | 31.0% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .250 | .400 | 36.8% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .229 | .479 | 30.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Seiya Suzuki clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Michael Conforto o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 89% · base 41% · n=9 · -124 DraftKings
Michael Conforto o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 89% · base 41% · n=9 · -123 BetOnline
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 60% · n=58 · -222 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 10 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +535 | -526 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BAL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Bleday CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
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