Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.55
Edge
-4.6%Last 5
20%1/5 over 2
Window avg
1.40
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
22%
2/9
L20
16%
3/19
2026
23%
18/77
Avg1.59
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .250 | .250 | 47.1% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .197 | .342 | 13.0% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .255 | .451 | 17.3% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .286 | .286 | 40.0% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .300 | .750 | 10.9% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .300 | .450 | 42.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Michael Busch clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 72% · n=136 · -230 DraftKings
Alex Bregman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 68% · n=31 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 60% · n=138 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 61% · n=139 · -147 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 5 vs 2
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +114 | -151 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +126 | -164 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +115 | -150 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +137 | -135 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfsBetr Picks
League vs BAL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
onBasePercentage
OPS