Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.16
Edge
-6.1%Last 30
13%4/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.13
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
18%
4/22
Avg0.10
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .250 | .250 | 47.1% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .197 | .342 | 13.0% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .255 | .451 | 17.3% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .286 | .286 | 40.0% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .300 | .750 | 10.9% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .300 | .450 | 42.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Michael Busch clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Alex Bregman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 68% · n=11 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 72% · n=64 · -230 DraftKings
Carson Kelly o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 57% · n=30 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 61% · n=65 · -147 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 30 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +377 | -370 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BAL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
onBasePercentage
OPS