Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.55
Edge
-4.6%Last 4
75%3/4 over 1.5
Window avg
3.50
Median
3.5
L5
75%
3/4
L10
75%
3/4
L20
75%
3/4
2026
0%
0/1
Avg3.50
StreakL1
Parlay pairs — when Michael Busch clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 72% · n=136 · -230 DraftKings
Alex Bregman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 68% · n=31 · -238 BetOnline
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 60% · n=138 · -173 DraftKings
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 61% · n=139 · -147 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 4 vs 1.5
vs BAL only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +114 | -151 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +126 | -164 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +115 | -150 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovada
League vs BAL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| JJ Bleday CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS
AVG