Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.77
Edge
+8.1%All 97 games
42%41/97 over 1.5
Window avg
1.68
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
2026
52%
12/23
Avg1.68
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats SwitchThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .152 | .217 | 41.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .351 | .638 | 21.6% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .351 | .459 | 15.2% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .289 | .489 | 41.2% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .130 | .261 | 25.7% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .263 | .456 | 27.0% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Bryan Reynolds clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Tyler Callihan o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 52% · n=12 · -125 DraftKings
Tyler Callihan o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 75% · base 52% · n=12 · -137 PrizePicks
Jared Jones o4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 73% · base 62% · n=11 · -152 DraftKings
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 57% · n=103 · -130 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 97 games vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +133 | -178 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +135 | -180 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadaBetr Picks
League vs ATL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 13 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 6 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS