Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Riley Greene

Detroit Tigers · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.23
Edge
+7.2%
Last 10
10%1/10 over 2.5
Window avg
1.20
Median
1.5
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
6%
5/90
Avg0.99
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
43.7%
91.4.256.43823.2%
Slider
26.0%
83.9.359.46235.4%
Changeup
22.8%
79.5.208.37741.4%
Sweeper
5.7%
76.7.333.60030.8%
Cutter
1.8%
88.4.400.93334.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Riley Greene clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Dillon Dingler o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 61% · n=141 · -253 DraftKings
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 51% · n=34 · -137 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 10 vs 2.5

official box scores
2vs HOU06/250vs HOU06/262vs HOU06/270vs HOU06/282@ NYY06/300@ NYY07/011@ TEX07/022@ TEX07/043@ TEX07/050vs OAK07/072.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-209+156
dabble_us_dfs0.5-185+188

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs OAK Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Kevin McGonigle DET07/072
Zach McKinstry DET07/072
Matt Vierling DET07/071
Colt Keith DET07/071
Spencer Torkelson DET07/071
Kerry Carpenter DET07/070
James Outman DET07/070
Dillon Dingler DET07/070
Otto Lopez MIA07/053
Heriberto Hernández MIA07/053
Brian Navarreto MIA07/052
Liam Hicks MIA07/052
Xavier Edwards MIA07/052
Javier Sanoja MIA07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.563.583.500.321.744.474.406.700.833
Exit Velo
93.3789.0885.6297.2696.4789.1886.2499.3099.47
AVG
.313.278.250.214.410.368.219.500.556
onBasePercentage
.313.278.250.207.400.368.219.484.556
OPS
.875.861.750.5171.125.842.6251.1611.389