Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ezequiel Duran

Texas Rangers · 1B · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.44
Edge
+4.9%
Trending splitsDay 68%(19)
Last 30
43%10/23 over 1 · 7 push
Window avg
1.23
Median
1.0
L5
75%
3/4
L10
71%
5/7
L20
47%
7/15
2026
53%
31/59
Avg1.08
Streak

Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Changeup
32.7%
90.4.346.46215.3%
Sinker
31.6%
97.5.382.50913.2%
Four-seam FB
19.9%
97.4.149.23933.1%
Sweeper
15.8%
86.2.324.64927.7%
Fastball
0.1%
84.7

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Ezequiel Duran clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Elias Díaz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 80% · base 70% · n=10 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Elias Díaz o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 80% · base 70% · n=10 · -105 dabble_us_dfs
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 68% · n=13 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 77% · base 68% · n=13 · -120 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 30 vs 1

official box scores
0@ STL06/020@ STL06/030vs CLE06/050vs CLE06/065vs CLE06/072@ KC06/091@ KC06/102@ KC06/110@ BOS06/121@ BOS06/130@ BOS06/140vs MIN06/164vs MIN06/181vs SD06/190vs SD06/200vs SD06/214@ MIA06/221@ MIA06/230@ MIA06/240@ TOR06/252@ TOR06/261@ TOR06/272@ TOR06/280@ CLE06/291@ CLE06/303@ CLE07/012vs DET07/020vs DET07/044vs DET07/051vs LAA07/071

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5+157-211
Bovada1.5+155-210

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:11 AM ET12:11 AM ET
DraftKingsBovada

League vs LAA Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Alejandro Osuna TEX07/074
Elias Díaz TEX07/072
Jake Burger TEX07/071
Nicky Lopez TEX07/071
Josh Smith TEX07/071
Brandon Nimmo TEX07/070
Evan Carter TEX07/070
Joc Pederson TEX07/070
Jarren Duran BOS07/055
Willson Contreras BOS07/054
Masataka Yoshida BOS07/053
Tsung-Che Cheng BOS07/052
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/051
Anthony Seigler BOS07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.4741.056.1541.0001.000.7691.250.714.095
AVG
.222.333.077.480.414.320.333.259.050
onBasePercentage
.263.333.077.480.414.308.333.250.048
sluggingPercentage
.222.722.077.520.586.480.917.481.050
Exit Velo
79.0088.1694.6386.1193.4590.5397.2595.9781.88