Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Colt Emerson

Seattle Mariners · 3B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.36
Edge
-5.2%
All 42 games
36%15/42 over 0.5
Window avg
0.40
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
36%
15/42
Avg0.40
StreakL2

Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
25.2%
95.8.190.28619.1%
Sweeper
24.1%
84.2.200.70026.3%
Splitter
24.0%
87.4.400.40016.7%
Curveball
16.5%
83.6.118.11840.5%
Four-seam FB
9.1%
96.3.237.60539.4%
Slider
1.1%
88.7.214.28647.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Colt Emerson clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Cole Young o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 80% · base 74% · n=15 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 54% · n=11 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Cole Young o0.5 Batter Strikeouts
hits when he does 60% · base 48% · n=15 · -137 Betr Picks

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredall 42 games vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs AZ05/311vs NYM06/010vs NYM06/020vs NYM06/031@ DET06/050@ DET06/061@ DET06/071@ BAL06/111@ WSH06/121@ WSH06/130@ WSH06/141vs BAL06/160vs BAL06/170vs BAL06/180vs BOS06/190vs BOS06/200vs BOS06/210@ PIT06/230@ PIT06/240@ PIT06/252@ CLE06/260@ CLE06/270@ CLE06/280vs LAA06/290vs LAA06/300vs LAA07/020vs TOR07/032vs TOR07/040vs TOR07/050@ MIA07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+184-182

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs MIA Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Josh Naylor SEA07/071
Cal Raleigh SEA07/071
Randy Arozarena SEA07/071
Cole Young SEA07/071
J.P. Crawford SEA07/071
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Luke Raley SEA07/070
Max Muncy OAK07/052
Lawrence Butler OAK07/052
Zack Gelof OAK07/051
Jonah Heim OAK07/051
Carlos Cortes OAK07/051
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.400.400.222.273.375.300.182.300.286
Exit Velo
88.5688.9090.6788.4291.5388.4483.6986.3295.69
onBasePercentage
.500.400.222.273.375.300.182.300.286
sluggingPercentage
1.4001.000.889.364.500.400.182.300.643
OPS
1.6671.4001.111.636.875.700.364.600.929