Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.47
Edge
+2.8%All 172 games
35%61/172 over 1.5
Window avg
1.56
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
30%
6/20
2026
26%
12/46
Avg1.56
StreakW1
Parlay pairs — when Alex Bregman clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 84% · base 70% · n=32 · -230 DraftKings
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 73% · n=33 · -222 BetOnline
Michael Busch o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 59% · n=33 · -208 BetOnline
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 61% · base 51% · n=33 · +109 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 172 games vs 1.5
home only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +126 | -167 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +134 | -175 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +125 | -165 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovada
League vs BAL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
onBasePercentage
AVG
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo