Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.47
Edge
+2.8%Last 20
45%9/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.25
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
2026
41%
27/66
Avg1.77
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .200 | .600 | 33.3% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .272 | .380 | 11.3% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .281 | .303 | 5.2% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .148 | .148 | 24.4% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .381 | .762 | 14.0% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .154 | .250 | 28.9% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Alex Bregman clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 84% · base 70% · n=32 · -230 DraftKings
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 73% · n=33 · -222 BetOnline
Michael Busch o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 59% · n=33 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 61% · base 51% · n=33 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +126 | -167 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +125 | -165 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +134 | -175 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +147 | -145 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfsBetr Picks
League vs BAL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS