Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alex Bregman

Chicago Cubs · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.07
Edge
-4.8%
All 255 games
14%35/255 over 0.5
Window avg
0.15
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
6%
4/66
Avg0.15
StreakL15

Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Splitter
39.4%
82.5.200.60033.3%
Four-seam FB
21.3%
93.5.272.38011.3%
Sinker
16.9%
92.3.281.3035.2%
Curveball
14.2%
77.2.148.14824.4%
Cutter
5.5%
86.8.381.76214.0%
Slider
2.8%
83.4.154.25028.9%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runsall 255 games vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs HOU05/220vs HOU05/230vs HOU05/240@ PIT05/250@ PIT05/260@ PIT05/270@ PIT05/280@ STL05/290@ STL05/300vs OAK06/040vs SF06/060vs SF06/070@ COL06/090@ COL06/101@ COL06/110@ SF06/120@ SF06/130@ SF06/140vs COL06/150vs COL06/160vs TOR06/190@ NYM06/230@ NYM06/250@ MIL06/260@ MIL06/280vs SD06/290vs SD07/010vs STL07/030vs STL07/040@ BAL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+785-769

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs BAL Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Nico Hoerner CHC07/070
Michael Conforto CHC07/070
Michael Busch CHC07/070
Dansby Swanson CHC07/070
Ian Happ CHC07/070
Seiya Suzuki CHC07/070
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC07/070
Miguel Amaya CHC07/070
Spencer Steer CIN07/051
Sal Stewart CIN07/050
Tyler Stephenson CIN07/050
Elly De La Cruz CIN07/050
JJ Bleday CIN07/050
TJ Friedl CIN07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.125.231.320.195.224.405.111.244.296
AVG
.125.231.292.205.229.400.111.205.296
Exit Velo
81.9289.4994.2184.3891.5292.4483.0792.6486.16
sluggingPercentage
.167.385.500.256.375.514.111.308.370
OPS
.292.615.800.439.592.892.222.537.667