Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.81
Edge
+18.8%All 110 games
37%41/110 over 1.5
Window avg
1.41
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
50%
19/38
Avg1.41
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .223 | .330 | 15.2% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .300 | .550 | 26.2% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .167 | .262 | 14.7% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .286 | .786 | 25.0% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Mauricio Dubón clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 63% · base 58% · n=30 · +137 dabble_us_dfs
Matt Olson o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 62% · base 53% · n=37 · +118 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 110 games vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +154 | -206 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +179 | -179 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +155 | -210 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs PIT — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 5 | ✓ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 3 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
Exit Velo