Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.70
Edge
+0.2%Last 20
15%3/20 over 3.5
Window avg
1.45
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
18%
14/78
Avg1.41
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .267 | .493 | 29.3% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .263 | .395 | 29.2% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .282 | .410 | 41.1% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .118 | .118 | 34.8% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .174 | .435 | 11.5% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .400 | .867 | 22.9% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .214 | .464 | 41.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Samuel Basallo clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Pete Alonso o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 67% · n=26 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Taylor Ward o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 61% · n=26 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 3.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +119 | -159 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +120 | -156 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +120 | -160 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +129 | -128 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfsBetr Picks
League vs CHC — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Pete Alonso BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS