Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.07
Edge
-3.7%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 107
7%8/107 over 0.5
Window avg
0.09
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
7%
5/68
Avg0.09
StreakL14
Tonight's matchup: Troy Melton (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.4% | 96.0 | .340 | .453 | 12.7% |
| Slider | 19.1% | 86.1 | .318 | .455 | 31.8% |
| Cutter | 18.8% | 91.6 | .444 | 1.111 | 25.0% |
| Splitter | 8.9% | 88.4 | .188 | .375 | 12.1% |
| Sinker | 8.4% | 95.3 | .257 | .400 | 11.6% |
| Curveball | 6.3% | 77.8 | .227 | .318 | 36.1% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Carlos Cortes clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Nick Kurtz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 69% · n=8 · -175 dabble_us_dfs
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 63% · base 52% · n=8 · +133 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Kurtz o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=8 · +104 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 63% · base 48% · n=8 · +128 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 107 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +910 | -833 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs DET — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Henry Bolte OAK | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Zack Gelof OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Muncy OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Colby Thomas OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Kurtz OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonah Heim OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Wilson OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Langeliers OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Burger TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Cam Cauley TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Evan Carter TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Nimmo TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS