Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Evan Carter

Texas Rangers · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.52
Edge
-15.0%
Last 5
0%0/5 over 3.5
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/73
Avg0.64
StreakL179

Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Changeup
32.7%
90.4.077.17939.2%
Sinker
31.6%
97.5.308.38511.5%
Four-seam FB
19.9%
97.4.205.45218.3%
Sweeper
15.8%
86.2.200.50038.5%
Fastball
0.1%
84.7

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Evan Carter clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Jake Burger o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 61% · n=46 · -161 dabble_us_dfs
Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 62% · n=29 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=8 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=8 · -120 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 5 vs 3.5

official box scores
0@ CLE06/302vs DET07/021vs DET07/040vs DET07/050vs LAA07/073.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-147+111
dabble_us_dfs0.5-120+120

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs LAA Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Elias Díaz TEX07/072
Alejandro Osuna TEX07/071
Nicky Lopez TEX07/071
Ezequiel Duran TEX07/071
Jake Burger TEX07/071
Josh Smith TEX07/071
Joc Pederson TEX07/070
Brandon Nimmo TEX07/070
Masataka Yoshida BOS07/053
Tsung-Che Cheng BOS07/052
Jarren Duran BOS07/052
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/051
Anthony Seigler BOS07/051
Willson Contreras BOS07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
93.4785.5968.8990.3091.0978.9777.4995.3795.79
AVG
.167.190.167.200.225.438.087.167.250
sluggingPercentage
.333.381.167.450.450.750.087.167.625
onBasePercentage
.231.190.167.190.220.389.087.167.250
OPS
.538.571.333.619.6591.056.174.333.875