Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.42
Edge
+0.8%Last 10
50%5/10 over 1.5
Window avg
1.90
Median
1.5
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
38%
5/13
2026
50%
2/4
Avg1.62
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 32.7% | 90.4 | .300 | .533 | 41.4% |
| Sinker | 31.6% | 97.5 | .317 | .617 | 20.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 19.9% | 97.4 | .175 | .300 | 28.9% |
| Sweeper | 15.8% | 86.2 | .289 | .378 | 33.8% |
| Fastball | 0.1% | 84.7 | — | — | — |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jake Burger clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 86% · base 74% · n=14 · -158 DraftKings
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 86% · base 74% · n=14 · -137 PrizePicks
MacKenzie Gore o17.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 78% · base 48% · n=9 · -157 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 10 vs 1.5
vs LAA only · official box scoresLine movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs LAA — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Alejandro Osuna TEX | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Elias Díaz TEX | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Smith TEX | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Evan Carter TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Nimmo TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joc Pederson TEX | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | 07/05 | 5 | ✓ |
| Willson Contreras BOS | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Masataka Yoshida BOS | 07/05 | 3 | ✓ |
| Tsung-Che Cheng BOS | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS