Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jake Burger

Texas Rangers · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.82
Edge
-7.1%
Last 13
69%9/13 over 0.5
Window avg
1.00
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
69%
9/13
2026
75%
3/4
Avg1.00
StreakW2

Tonight's matchup: Walbert Ureña (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Changeup
32.7%
90.4.300.53341.4%
Sinker
31.6%
97.5.317.61720.0%
Four-seam FB
19.9%
97.4.175.30028.9%
Sweeper
15.8%
86.2.289.37833.8%
Fastball
0.1%
84.7

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Jake Burger clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Nicky Lopez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 74% · n=21 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Nicky Lopez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 81% · base 74% · n=21 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
MacKenzie Gore o17.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 67% · base 48% · n=15 · -157 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 13 vs 0.5

vs LAA only · official box scores
1vs LAA04/010vs LAA04/021vs LAA04/033vs LAA04/161vs LAA04/170@ LAA07/073@ LAA07/080@ LAA07/091@ LAA07/101@ LAA05/220@ LAA05/231@ LAA05/241vs LAA07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-206+154
dabble_us_dfs0.5-161+163

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs LAA Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Elias Díaz TEX07/072
Ezequiel Duran TEX07/071
Nicky Lopez TEX07/071
Alejandro Osuna TEX07/071
Josh Smith TEX07/071
Joc Pederson TEX07/070
Evan Carter TEX07/070
Brandon Nimmo TEX07/070
Masataka Yoshida BOS07/053
Jarren Duran BOS07/052
Tsung-Che Cheng BOS07/052
Anthony Seigler BOS07/051
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/051
Willson Contreras BOS07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.381.182.188.296.371.233.308.500.304
Exit Velo
93.0397.1883.2389.1698.7590.3898.9195.2081.81
AVG
.381.182.188.308.371.233.308.517.304
sluggingPercentage
.762.591.375.385.886.367.538.724.304
OPS
1.143.773.563.6671.257.600.8461.200.609