Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Victor Mesa Jr.

Tampa Bay Rays · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.98
Edge
+2.0%
Last 10
50%5/10 over 0.5
Window avg
1.40
Median
0.5
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
44%
12/27
Avg0.97
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
44.0%
93.5.083.20830.0%
Slider
18.5%
87.2.100.40027.8%
Changeup
15.5%
83.7.467.73321.7%
Knuckle Curve
14.3%
81.2
Sinker
7.8%
90.6.100.10012.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Victor Mesa Jr. clears 0.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Taylor Walls o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 89% · base 70% · n=9 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Taylor Walls o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 89% · base 70% · n=9 · +111 dabble_us_dfs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 70% · n=12 · -200 dabble_us_dfs
Chandler Simpson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 59% · n=11 · -213 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 10 vs 0.5

official box scores
4vs KC06/250vs AZ06/263vs AZ06/271vs AZ06/281@ KC07/010@ KC07/020@ HOU07/030@ HOU07/040@ HOU07/055vs NYY07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
BetOnline0.5-123-105

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs NYY Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Yandy Díaz TB07/075
Hunter Feduccia TB07/074
Richie Palacios TB07/073
Taylor Walls TB07/071
Chandler Simpson TB07/070
Cedric Mullins TB07/070
Junior Caminero TB07/070
Jonathan Aranda TB07/070
Richie Palacios TB07/062
Chandler Simpson TB07/061
Jonny DeLuca TB07/061
Cedric Mullins TB07/060
Taylor Walls TB07/060
Yandy Díaz TB07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
1.000.625.000.000.7142.000.111.000.800
OPS
2.000.875.000.000.8752.500.222.0001.000
AVG
1.000.250.000.000.286.500.111.000.200
onBasePercentage
1.000.250.000.000.250.500.111.000.200
Exit Velo
95.3882.6281.7486.6389.7397.8382.0893.8090.33