Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Victor Mesa Jr.

Tampa Bay Rays · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.51
Edge
-9.6%
All 23 games
39%9/23 over 0.5
Window avg
0.52
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
33%
5/15
Avg0.52
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
44.0%
93.5.083.20830.0%
Slider
18.5%
87.2.100.40027.8%
Changeup
15.5%
83.7.467.73321.7%
Knuckle Curve
14.3%
81.2
Sinker
7.8%
90.6.100.10012.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Victor Mesa Jr. clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Taylor Walls o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 89% · base 70% · n=9 · +120 dabble_us_dfs
Taylor Walls o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 89% · base 70% · n=9 · +111 dabble_us_dfs
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 70% · n=12 · -200 dabble_us_dfs
Chandler Simpson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 59% · n=11 · -213 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitsall 23 games vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ SD05/261@ SD05/270vs SF05/300@ WSH09/021vs PHI09/052vs WSH09/081vs WSH09/090vs WSH09/101@ BAL05/261@ BAL05/270vs DET06/010vs DET06/020@ MIA06/050vs BOS06/080@ LAA06/130vs KC06/230vs AZ06/262vs AZ06/271@ KC07/010@ KC07/020@ HOU07/030@ HOU07/042vs NYY07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-114-116
BetOnline0.5-137+106

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET12:10 AM ET
BetOnlineDraftKings

League vs NYY Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Richie Palacios TB07/072
Yandy Díaz TB07/072
Taylor Walls TB07/071
Hunter Feduccia TB07/071
Chandler Simpson TB07/070
Jonathan Aranda TB07/070
Cedric Mullins TB07/070
Junior Caminero TB07/070
Richie Palacios TB07/062
Jonny DeLuca TB07/061
Chandler Simpson TB07/061
Cedric Mullins TB07/060
Yandy Díaz TB07/060
Taylor Walls TB07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
1.000.625.000.000.7142.000.111.000.800
OPS
2.000.875.000.000.8752.500.222.0001.000
AVG
1.000.250.000.000.286.500.111.000.200
onBasePercentage
1.000.250.000.000.250.500.111.000.200
Exit Velo
95.3882.6281.7486.6389.7397.8382.0893.8090.33