Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.18
Edge
-8.4%Trending splitsHome 30%(40)
Last 10
10%1/10 over 0.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
20%
18/90
Avg0.27
StreakL3
Tonight's matchup: Troy Melton (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.4% | 96.0 | .245 | .585 | 37.1% |
| Slider | 19.1% | 86.1 | .250 | .625 | 40.8% |
| Cutter | 18.8% | 91.6 | .294 | .471 | 33.9% |
| Splitter | 8.9% | 88.4 | .227 | .455 | 54.8% |
| Sinker | 8.4% | 95.3 | .343 | .418 | 24.4% |
| Curveball | 6.3% | 77.8 | .353 | .647 | 41.5% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Nick Kurtz clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Henry Bolte o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 85% · base 69% · n=13 · -147 dabble_us_dfs
Jeffrey Springs o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 78% · base 63% · n=9 · +112 dabble_us_dfs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 52% · n=41 · -127 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 10 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +307 | -303 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs DET — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Henry Bolte OAK | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Shea Langeliers OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Wilson OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Gelof OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Muncy OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonah Heim OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Colby Thomas OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Burger TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Cam Cauley TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joc Pederson TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Smith TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS