Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nick Kurtz

Oakland Athletics · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.85
Edge
-9.0%
Trending splitsNight 73%(40)
Last 30
63%19/30 over 0.5
Window avg
1.00
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
62%
18/29
Avg1.06
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Troy Melton (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
38.4%
96.0.245.58537.1%
Slider
19.1%
86.1.250.62540.8%
Cutter
18.8%
91.6.294.47133.9%
Splitter
8.9%
88.4.227.45554.8%
Sinker
8.4%
95.3.343.41824.4%
Curveball
6.3%
77.8.353.64741.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nick Kurtz clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Henry Bolte o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 69% · n=32 · -147 dabble_us_dfs
Jonah Heim o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 60% · n=26 · -190 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 30 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs KC09/281@ TOR03/290@ ATL03/312@ NYY04/091vs TEX04/140vs CWS04/190@ TEX04/250vs KC04/281vs KC04/300vs CLE05/011vs CLE05/031@ PHI05/050@ BAL05/102vs STL05/133@ LAA05/191vs NYY05/293vs NYY05/300@ CHC06/043vs MIL06/081vs MIL06/092vs COL06/121vs COL06/132vs LAA06/210@ SF06/231@ LAA06/270@ LAA06/281vs LAD06/290vs LAD06/302vs LAD07/010@ DET07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-241+178
dabble_us_dfs0.5-175+177

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs DET Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/073
Shea Langeliers OAK07/071
Zack Gelof OAK07/071
Jonah Heim OAK07/071
Henry Bolte OAK07/071
Colby Thomas OAK07/070
Max Muncy OAK07/070
Jacob Wilson OAK07/070
Josh Smith TEX07/051
Brandon Nimmo TEX07/051
Ezequiel Duran TEX07/051
Nicky Lopez TEX07/051
Jake Burger TEX07/051
Joc Pederson TEX07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.188.143.286.250.422.357.194.449.588
Exit Velo
94.5896.3488.1690.24100.4091.1788.0297.49104.07
AVG
.133.143.286.250.422.357.167.449.588
sluggingPercentage
.133.357.571.528.867.464.267.857.941
OPS
.313.500.857.7781.289.821.4521.3061.529