Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Chandler Simpson

Tampa Bay Rays · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.96
Edge
-3.6%
Last 5
40%2/5 over 1.5
Window avg
1.40
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
31%
25/81
Avg1.10
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
44.0%
93.5.294.3035.3%
Slider
18.5%
87.2.259.33326.1%
Changeup
15.5%
83.7.143.17920.8%
Knuckle Curve
14.3%
81.2
Sinker
7.8%
90.6.300.3504.9%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Chandler Simpson clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 50% · n=13 · -114 DraftKings
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 62% · base 50% · n=13 · -123 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 5 vs 1.5

official box scores
2@ KC07/013@ KC07/021@ HOU07/051vs NYY07/060vs NYY07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-232+172
dabble_us_dfs0.5-222+225
BetOnline0.5-213+161

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs NYY Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Richie Palacios TB07/072
Yandy Díaz TB07/072
Victor Mesa Jr. TB07/072
Hunter Feduccia TB07/071
Taylor Walls TB07/071
Cedric Mullins TB07/070
Jonathan Aranda TB07/070
Junior Caminero TB07/070
Richie Palacios TB07/062
Jonny DeLuca TB07/061
Taylor Walls TB07/060
Yandy Díaz TB07/060
Nick Fortes TB07/060
Jonathan Aranda TB07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.133.278.308.345.324.280.333.296.200
Exit Velo
80.2086.7183.9184.4686.6686.2070.9983.9982.61
AVG
.133.286.308.345.333.280.353.296.200
sluggingPercentage
.133.314.308.414.394.440.353.370.400
OPS
.267.583.615.759.706.720.667.667.600