Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Caleb Durbin

Boston Red Sox · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.51
Edge
+3.8%
All 223 games
1%3/206 over 2 · 17 push
Window avg
0.43
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/8
L20
6%
1/17
2026
3%
2/73
Avg0.43
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.233.4938.5%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.247.3096.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.120.24040.4%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.216.32425.3%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.278.55619.6%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.200.20010.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Caleb Durbin clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Masataka Yoshida o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 53% · n=11 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Willson Contreras o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 68% · n=29 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Jarren Duran o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 57% · n=22 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Anthony Seigler o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 48% · n=11 · -169 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredall 223 games vs 2

official box scores
0vs BAL06/022vs BAL06/030vs BAL06/040@ NYY06/050@ NYY06/070@ TB06/081@ TB06/092@ TB06/100vs TEX06/120vs TEX06/131vs TEX06/140vs TOR06/161vs TOR06/183@ SEA06/190@ SEA06/200@ SEA06/210@ COL06/220@ COL06/230@ COL06/242vs NYY06/252vs NYY06/260vs NYY06/271vs NYY06/281vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/300vs WSH07/012@ LAA07/030@ LAA07/041@ LAA07/050@ CWS07/072

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+179-175

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs CWS Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Connor Wong BOS07/072
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/071
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/071
Jarren Duran BOS07/071
Willson Contreras BOS07/071
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/071
Andruw Monasterio BOS07/071
Anthony Seigler BOS07/070
Chase DeLauter CLE07/052
Kyle Manzardo CLE07/052
Gabriel Arias CLE07/051
Travis Bazzana CLE07/051
Kahlil Watson CLE07/050
Cooper Ingle CLE07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.278.286.364.167.250.185.375.125.136
Exit Velo
79.9388.6585.4882.9789.5785.9291.7782.0284.46
onBasePercentage
.278.286.364.167.237.185.375.120.130
sluggingPercentage
.667.486.545.208.417.2221.000.333.182
OPS
.944.771.909.375.632.4071.375.440.304