Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Caleb Durbin

Boston Red Sox · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.15
Edge
+6.3%
Last 20
25%5/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
9%
5/58
Avg0.08
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.233.4938.5%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.247.3096.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.120.24040.4%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.216.32425.3%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.278.55619.6%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.200.20010.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs BAL06/030@ NYY06/070@ TB06/092@ TB06/100vs TEX06/120vs TEX06/130vs TEX06/140vs TOR06/161vs TOR06/181@ SEA06/190@ SEA06/200@ SEA06/210@ COL06/221vs NYY06/250vs NYY06/260vs NYY06/271vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/300vs WSH07/010@ LAA07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1248-1111

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs CWS Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Andruw Monasterio BOS07/071
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/071
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/070
Jarren Duran BOS07/070
Anthony Seigler BOS07/070
Willson Contreras BOS07/070
Connor Wong BOS07/070
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Gabriel Arias CLE07/051
Chase DeLauter CLE07/051
Travis Bazzana CLE07/050
Kyle Manzardo CLE07/050
Steven Kwan CLE07/050
Patrick Bailey CLE07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.278.286.364.167.250.185.375.125.136
Exit Velo
79.9388.6585.4882.9789.5785.9291.7782.0284.46
onBasePercentage
.278.286.364.167.237.185.375.120.130
sluggingPercentage
.667.486.545.208.417.2221.000.333.182
OPS
.944.771.909.375.632.4071.375.440.304