Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.23
Edge
-3.9%All 181 games
9%15/168 over 3 · 13 push
Window avg
1.25
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
7%
4/61
Avg1.25
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats SwitchThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .207 | .207 | 20.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .354 | .458 | 21.6% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .222 | .296 | 17.9% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .409 | .500 | 12.2% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .250 | .250 | 8.3% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .324 | .324 | 28.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jake Mangum clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 72% · n=51 · -204 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 68% · n=21 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 69% · n=24 · -214 DraftKings
Nick Gonzales o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 67% · base 49% · n=21 · +162 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 181 games vs 3
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +118 | -158 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +126 | -125 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +120 | -160 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadaBetr Picksdabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 13 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 6 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ronny Mauricio NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS