Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.31
Edge
-7.0%Last 5
20%1/5 over 2.5
Window avg
1.40
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
28%
19/67
Avg1.62
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .250 | .514 | 18.5% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .182 | .394 | 41.9% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .273 | .303 | 34.4% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .174 | .304 | 38.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Drake Baldwin clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Matt Olson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 72% · n=75 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Dominic Smith o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 57% · n=21 · -137 dabble_us_dfs
Austin Riley o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 61% · n=51 · -152 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 5 vs 2.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +134 | -179 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +135 | -180 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +131 | -130 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadaBetr Picksdabble_us_dfs
League vs PIT — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 5 | ✓ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 3 | ✓ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS