Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.20
Edge
+4.3%All 223 games
8%17/223 over 0.5
Window avg
0.09
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
11%
10/90
Avg0.09
StreakL7
Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 32.1% | 88.1 | .192 | .308 | 24.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 17.1% | 91.5 | .269 | .474 | 22.7% |
| Sweeper | 14.5% | 79.8 | .118 | .206 | 52.4% |
| Curveball | 10.5% | 77.8 | .250 | .333 | 31.0% |
| Changeup | 10.4% | 82.4 | .125 | .313 | 55.0% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 91.2 | .266 | .291 | 10.8% |
| Splitter | 5.1% | 81.2 | .308 | .692 | 31.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Cam Smith clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Yainer Diaz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 83% · base 66% · n=12 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Christian Walker o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 62% · n=17 · -182 dabble_us_dfs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 69% · base 43% · n=13 · -105 dabble_us_dfs
Yainer Diaz o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 34% · n=12 · +174 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 223 games vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +634 | -625 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs WSH — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zach Dezenzo HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Allen HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Walker HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Vázquez HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Yainer Diaz HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Braden Shewmake HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
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