Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Cam Smith

Houston Astros · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.87
Edge
-2.0%
Last 223
55%123/223 over 0.5
Window avg
0.78
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
2026
56%
50/90
Avg0.78
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
32.1%
88.1.192.30824.6%
Four-seam FB
17.1%
91.5.269.47422.7%
Sweeper
14.5%
79.8.118.20652.4%
Curveball
10.5%
77.8.250.33331.0%
Changeup
10.4%
82.4.125.31355.0%
Sinker
10.3%
91.2.266.29110.8%
Splitter
5.1%
81.2.308.69231.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Cam Smith clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Spencer Arrighetti o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 67% · base 58% · n=9 · -111 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 223 vs 0.5

official box scores
2vs PIT06/030vs PIT06/040vs OAK06/052vs OAK06/072@ LAA06/080@ LAA06/091@ LAA06/101@ KC06/120@ KC06/131@ KC06/141vs DET06/151vs DET06/162vs DET06/171vs CLE06/190vs CLE06/200vs CLE06/212@ TOR06/230@ TOR06/241@ DET06/250@ DET06/261@ DET06/270@ DET06/282vs MIN06/291vs MIN06/301vs MIN07/011vs TB07/030vs TB07/041vs TB07/052@ WSH07/060@ WSH07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-179+134

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs WSH Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Isaac Paredes HOU07/071
Nick Allen HOU07/071
Jose Altuve HOU07/071
Christian Vázquez HOU07/071
Christian Walker HOU07/071
Brice Matthews HOU07/071
Zach Dezenzo HOU07/070
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/070
Braden Shewmake HOU07/062
Yainer Diaz HOU07/062
Christian Walker HOU07/062
Brice Matthews HOU07/062
Jose Altuve HOU07/061
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.000.320.143.320.239.212.308.361.240
sluggingPercentage
.000.680.357.400.500.313.615.583.542
AVG
.000.320.143.320.239.219.308.361.250
OPS
.0001.000.500.720.739.515.923.944.760
Exit Velo
77.6591.3996.7488.3996.4291.4888.6192.8291.82