Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Cam Smith

Houston Astros · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.87
Edge
-2.0%
Trending splitsvs LHP 68%(25)
Last 20
60%12/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.90
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
53%
17/32
Avg0.70
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
32.1%
88.1.192.30824.6%
Four-seam FB
17.1%
91.5.269.47422.7%
Sweeper
14.5%
79.8.118.20652.4%
Curveball
10.5%
77.8.250.33331.0%
Changeup
10.4%
82.4.125.31355.0%
Sinker
10.3%
91.2.266.29110.8%
Splitter
5.1%
81.2.308.69231.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Cam Smith clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Spencer Arrighetti o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 67% · base 58% · n=9 · -105 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
3@ BOS05/030vs LAD05/060@ CIN05/090@ CIN05/100vs SEA05/140vs TEX05/172@ MIN05/201@ CHC05/221@ CHC05/231@ CHC05/241vs MIL05/300vs MIL05/312vs OAK06/071@ KC06/142vs DET06/170vs CLE06/212@ TOR06/231@ DET06/270@ DET06/281vs TB07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-179+134
dabble_us_dfs0.5-175+178

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs WSH Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Brice Matthews HOU07/071
Nick Allen HOU07/071
Jose Altuve HOU07/071
Isaac Paredes HOU07/071
Christian Walker HOU07/071
Christian Vázquez HOU07/071
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/070
Zach Dezenzo HOU07/070
Yainer Diaz HOU07/062
Christian Walker HOU07/062
Brice Matthews HOU07/062
Braden Shewmake HOU07/062
Yordan Alvarez HOU07/061
Jose Altuve HOU07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.000.320.143.320.239.212.308.361.240
sluggingPercentage
.000.680.357.400.500.313.615.583.542
AVG
.000.320.143.320.239.219.308.361.250
OPS
.0001.000.500.720.739.515.923.944.760
Exit Velo
77.6591.3996.7488.3996.4291.4888.6192.8291.82