Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nathan Lukes

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.11
Edge
-8.3%
Last 20
50%10/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.80
Median
1.5
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
40%
10/25
Avg1.18
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.205.20512.7%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.368.47415.8%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.167.33318.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.328.39720.5%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.214.21425.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nathan Lukes clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 69% · n=71 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 64% · n=19 · -140 DraftKings
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 62% · n=51 · -172 DraftKings
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 50% · n=40 · -147 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 20 vs 1.5

official box scores
0vs MIN04/125@ AZ04/193@ LAA04/222vs MIA05/271@ BAL05/302@ BAL05/311vs BAL06/061vs BAL06/070vs NYY06/134vs NYY06/144@ BOS06/182@ CHC06/190@ CHC06/200vs HOU06/232vs TEX06/275vs TEX06/282vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/041@ SEA07/051@ SF07/081.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs1.5+170-169

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Ernie Clement TOR07/081
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/075
Ernie Clement TOR07/073
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/064
Ernie Clement TOR07/061
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Daulton Varsho TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.167.267.125.214.269.471.357.125.222
Exit Velo
80.7385.7678.4790.2189.3588.8282.5494.7985.15
AVG
.200.267.143.214.280.471.357.125.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.267.143.214.440.706.500.125.556
OPS
.333.533.250.429.6921.176.857.250.778