Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nathan Lukes

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.83
Edge
-5.7%
Last 10
70%7/10 over 0.5
Window avg
1.20
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
58%
14/24
Avg0.81
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.205.20512.7%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.368.47415.8%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.167.33318.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.328.39720.5%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.214.21425.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nathan Lukes clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 66% · n=123 · -240 DraftKings
Jonatan Clase o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 59% · n=16 · -111 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 10 vs 0.5

official box scores
3vs NYY06/141@ BOS06/181@ CHC06/190@ CHC06/200vs HOU06/232vs TEX06/272vs TEX06/282vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/041@ SEA07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-198+148

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Ernie Clement TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Ernie Clement TOR07/061
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/061
Myles Straw TOR07/060
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Daulton Varsho TOR07/060
Sean Keys TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.167.267.125.214.269.471.357.125.222
Exit Velo
80.7385.7678.4790.2189.3588.8282.5494.7985.15
AVG
.200.267.143.214.280.471.357.125.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.267.143.214.440.706.500.125.556
OPS
.333.533.250.429.6921.176.857.250.778