Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nathan Lukes

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.89
Edge
-3.3%
Last 20
0%0/20 over 3
Window avg
0.80
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/54
Avg0.86
StreakL21

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.205.20512.7%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.368.47415.8%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.167.33318.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.328.39720.5%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.214.21425.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nathan Lukes clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 66% · n=124 · -217 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 3

official box scores
1@ BOS06/171@ BOS06/181@ CHC06/190@ CHC06/201vs HOU06/220vs HOU06/231vs HOU06/240vs TEX06/251vs TEX06/262vs TEX06/272vs TEX06/280vs NYM06/290vs NYM06/302vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/041@ SEA07/051@ SF07/060@ SF07/072@ SF07/083

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-198+148
dabble_us_dfs0.5-208+209

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/082
Daulton Varsho TOR07/082
Andrés Giménez TOR07/081
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/081
Ernie Clement TOR07/081
George Springer TOR07/080
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/080
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Ernie Clement TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.167.267.125.214.269.471.357.125.222
Exit Velo
80.7385.7678.4790.2189.3588.8282.5494.7985.15
AVG
.200.267.143.214.280.471.357.125.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.267.143.214.440.706.500.125.556
OPS
.333.533.250.429.6921.176.857.250.778