Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nathan Lukes

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.83
Edge
-5.7%
Last 20
33%3/9 over 1 · 11 push
Window avg
0.85
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/5
L20
33%
3/9
2026
33%
6/18
Avg0.88
StreakL1

Parlay pairs — when Nathan Lukes clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 66% · n=123 · -240 DraftKings
Jonatan Clase o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 59% · n=16 · -111 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 1

official box scores
1@ BAL05/292@ ATL06/022@ ATL06/032@ ATL06/040vs BAL06/051vs PHI06/081vs PHI06/091vs PHI06/101vs NYY06/121@ BOS06/161@ BOS06/171vs HOU06/221vs HOU06/240vs TEX06/251vs TEX06/260vs NYM06/290vs NYM06/300@ SEA07/031@ SF07/060@ SF07/071

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-198+148

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Ernie Clement TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/061
Ernie Clement TOR07/061
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/060
Myles Straw TOR07/060
Daulton Varsho TOR07/060
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060